September 5

Employment Data Comes in Soft

This week delivered a wave of important economic data, particularly around employment:

  • ADP private payrolls: +54,000 jobs in August (vs. +75,000 expected)
  • Initial jobless claims: 237,000 (vs. 230,000 expected)

August Jobs Report Disappoints

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +22,000 (vs. +75,000 expected)
  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% (up from 4.2% in July)
  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% MoM, +3.7% YoY

Taken together, these softer job numbers strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets are now pricing in a 98% chance of a cut at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting.

Fiscal Update: Tariff Revenues Rise

Tariff revenues in August totaled $31 billion, helping offset revenue lost from the latest tax bill passed by Congress. This inflow will remain a metric to monitor in the months ahead.

Markets End Week Near Highs

Equities capped the week with some volatility. After the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday, stocks pulled back slightly today on weaker-than-expected jobs data. The Dow and Nasdaq also finished lower, though all three major indices remain just shy of record territory.

With multiple rate cuts likely before year-end, the outlook for markets remains constructive and broadly bullish.