All Major Indexes Hit New Highs as Market Momentum Builds
Markets continued their march into record territory today, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all closing at new all-time highs, finally breaking through their February peaks. The rally reflects growing optimism despite a mixed bag of economic data.\
Private-Sector Job Loss Surprises, Rate Cut Odds Rise
On Wednesday morning, ADP reported a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, a sharp reversal from expectations of a 95,000 gain. Adding to the concern, May’s job creation figure was revised downward from 37,000 to just 29,000.
The unexpectedly weak labor report increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, as the central bank continues to balance its dual mandate: fostering full employment while keeping inflation in check. Markets now see a higher probability of cuts beginning as early as September.
U.S.–Vietnam Trade Deal Lifts Market Sentiment
Despite the soft jobs data, equities moved higher in part due to the announcement of a new trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam. Under the agreement:
- The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports.
- In exchange, existing tariffs and trade barriers on U.S. exports will be lifted.
The deal is expected to benefit American manufacturers and exporters, adding momentum to the broader market rally.
Senate Passes Major Tax Bill — House Vote Still Ahead
On Tuesday, the Senate passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) — a wide-reaching piece of tax legislation that includes:
- An extension of the 2017 Trump-era individual tax cuts
- A new $6,000 deduction for seniors earning under $75,000 ($150,000 for married couples)
While the bill’s passage in the Senate was a key milestone, its ultimate market impact remains unclear as it still faces a vote in the House.
Blue-Collar Wages Continue to Climb
Amid softer hiring trends, one bright spot remains: blue-collar wages have continued to rise in 2025. This wage resilience, even in the face of cooling job growth, could help sustain consumer spending and ease concerns of an economic slowdown.